Texas Democrats Pick Talarico Over Crockett as Cornyn Forced Into Runoff With Paxton

The first primaries of the 2026 midterms delivered a split verdict in Texas on Tuesday: Democrats chose their Senate candidate decisively, while Republicans are headed for 12 more weeks of internecine warfare that could determine whether the party holds a seat it hasn't lost in three decades.

State Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett with 53% of the vote in the Democratic primary, according to CBS News projections, avoiding a runoff and allowing him to pivot immediately to the general election. Talarico's victory settles a contest that was never really about policy — both candidates are progressives — but about style and strategy. Crockett's campaign argued she could mobilize new voters and energize a disaffected base. Talarico's backers bet that his left-wing populist platform, which casts billionaires as the central antagonists, would play better with moderates in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.

The GOP side, meanwhile, descended into chaos. Sen. John Cornyn, the three-term incumbent, managed just 42% of the vote in a three-way race against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, forcing a May 26 runoff with Paxton, according to NPR. With about 98% of votes counted, Cornyn led Paxton by fewer than 30,000 votes — a razor-thin margin in what CBS News called "the most expensive Senate primary in history." Nearly $100 million has already been spent, mostly to prop up Cornyn, and another $100 million could be burned before Memorial Day.

This is the old Republican Party versus the new MAGA pugilists, and the stakes are existential. Cornyn represents the traditional establishment — a creature of Senate leadership, methodical, risk-averse. Paxton is a Trump loyalist who has faced multiple controversies as attorney general but remains a hero to the base. On Wednesday, President Trump posted on social media that he would announce an endorsement "soon" and demanded the losing candidate drop out immediately to avoid a protracted civil war. Trump had stayed neutral before the primary, saying he liked all three candidates, but now faces a choice: Does he back Paxton and risk alienating Senate Republicans, or does he endorse Cornyn and anger his most fervent supporters?

The runoff is a gift to Talarico. While Republicans spend another $100 million attacking each other, he can focus on the general election. But let's be clear: winning statewide in Texas is Democrats' white whale, their Lucy and the football. They've come close before and always fallen short. For Talarico to pull it off, Democrats will need to be totally unified and fired up — a tall order after a primary that exposed real divisions over approach, even if not over substance.

Elsewhere in Texas, incumbents had a brutal night. Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost by double digits, according to NPR. Scandal-plagued Rep. Tony Gonzales is headed to a runoff in a dead heat against a gun-rights influencer. Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee is locked in a nail-biter in North Carolina. Longtime Rep. Al Green, kicked out of presidential addresses the last two years for protesting the Trump administration, is going to a runoff in a newly drawn district against Christian Menefee, who didn't start serving in Congress until last month. That kind of volatility makes sense in a time when people are increasingly skeptical of politics, politicians, and institutions.

The Texas primary was also marred by voting confusion in Dallas County, where GOP officials changed the rules this year to require voters to cast ballots at their local precinct rather than countywide polling sites. Hundreds of voters showed up at the wrong locations. A county judge ordered polls to stay open two extra hours; the Texas Supreme Court then mandated that votes cast by people who weren't in line at the original 7 p.m. closing time be held separately. Dallas County processed more than 57,000 Democratic ballots between 2 a.m. and 11 a.m. Wednesday, according to CBS News, and the exact number of ballots submitted after 7 p.m. remains unclear. Crockett, who is from Dallas and expected to do well there, alleged voters were being disenfranchised. She conceded Wednesday morning, calling for unity, but the damage was done. Concerns about voting access are not going away, especially with a president who has been quick to question election results.

In North Carolina, the Senate matchup is set: former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee, will face Michael Whatley, the former Trump Republican National Committee chairman, for the open seat left by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper's message was notable — he talked up affordability, attacked Whatley as a "D.C. insider," and tried to distance himself from any political party, promising to be an "independent" senator who would work with Trump when possible but "stand up to him" when necessary. It's a fine line to walk in a state Trump has won three times, but Cooper has won statewide before, and Democrats see him as their best shot at flipping a seat.

The broader picture, according to recent polling from The New York Times, shows Democrats with a modest advantage on the congressional generic ballot. The party out of power typically gains ground in midterm elections, and these early surveys suggest that dynamic may be taking shape. Democrats lead in the vast majority of recent polls, though by single-digit margins. But with redistricting underway in several states, the national vote share Democrats need to retake the House will depend on how those maps are drawn.

For now, the Texas GOP is eating itself alive, and Democrats have a clean shot. Whether Talarico can capitalize on it — or whether the Republican runoff produces a candidate too bloodied to win in November — remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: the first primaries of 2026 delivered a message that incumbents are vulnerable, voters are angry, and the midterms are going to be a knife fight.