Macau's Commercial Property Values to Fall Another 5% as Satellite Casino Closures Bite

Macau's commercial property market is heading for another year of price declines, with office values forecast to fall 5% in 2026 following a 7.9% drop last year, according to property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle. The grim outlook reflects the lasting impact of the city's decision to shutter all satellite casinos by the end of 2025 — a move that has left commercial landlords scrambling to fill space in districts that once thrived on gaming-related businesses.

The closure of satellite casinos — gaming venues operated by third parties under a gaming concession — has created particular headwinds for commercial properties in areas where they once clustered, such as Macau's NAPE district. "The official closure of all satellite casinos by the end of 2025 will continue to pose challenges for the real estate market, with overall commercial property capital values remaining in a bottoming phase," Mark Wong, senior director of value and risk advisory at JLL Macau, said in the firm's Macau Property Market Review and 2026 Market Forecast published Wednesday.

The commercial property downturn stands in stark contrast to the residential market, which JLL expects to stabilize this year after significant price adjustments in 2025. Capital values of mass-market homes fell 16.5% last year, while high-end properties declined 14.7%, according to JLL. Government data show Macau recorded 3,245 housing transactions in 2025, down 4% from the previous year, with the average transaction price falling 16.7% to MOP 70,935 (US$8,828.70) per square meter.

But new government measures aimed at reviving residential demand — including a stamp duty exemption on the first MOP 6 million of a home purchase for eligible buyers and an increase in the loan-to-value ratio for residential mortgages to 80% from 70% — are expected to provide some support. "These measures are expected to help alleviate mortgage burdens and stabilise the residential market in the short term," Wong said.

The retail sector presents a bifurcated picture. Prime street shops in tourist districts saw rents dip just 0.9% in 2025, and JLL expects them to remain flat this year as visitor arrivals return to high levels. "After years of repricing in prime street shops and with visitor arrivals back at high levels, tourist districts are again delivering attractive rental yields, drawing some local investors back into prime retail," Wong noted.

Neighborhood shops tell a different story. "A high delinquency rate on commercial property loans will continue to weigh on market sentiment," Wong said, forecasting that shop values could fall by up to 5% this year despite flat rents. The overall retail market recorded an 8.9% decline in capital values in 2025.

The office market faces its own set of challenges. While rents are expected to remain flat this year after a 3.4% decline in 2025, capital values continue to slide. With office rents falling more slowly than property values, many tenants are considering early renewals with longer lease terms to lock in favorable conditions and lower operating costs, according to Wong.

The broader issue, however, is one of structural demand. "The lack of major population policies and new large-scale infrastructure projects will continue to pose uncertainties to the long-term development of Macau's real estate market," Wong said. Limited end-user demand in the medium term will pose challenges for absorbing both public and private housing supply in the pipeline, he added.

Banks have tightened lending for commercial property purchases, further dampening investment sentiment. "With banks tightening lending for commercial property purchases, investment sentiment in Macau's commercial property market remains weak," Wong said. The combination of restricted credit, the satellite casino closures, and limited catalysts for new demand suggests Macau's commercial property sector will remain in a downcycle for the foreseeable future.

The contrast between residential stabilization and commercial distress reflects a broader reality: Macau's economy is recovering for consumers and tourists, but the structural shifts in its gaming industry — particularly the elimination of satellite casinos — have left commercial landlords exposed to a market that may not return to its previous form. For investors who bought at peak valuations, the message from JLL is clear: the bottom isn't here yet.